CrisisWatch N°102

Lugares de interés (POIs) del Mapa

0: South Sudan

Relations with Khartoum further deteriorated; govt mid-Jan initiated shutdown of all oil production after AU-facilitated oil talks faltered and following additional seizures of South Sudan oil by Khartoum; “thefts” allegedly worth $815m since Dec 2011. Air raid by Sudanese armed forces on Upper Nile State refugee camp 23 Jan wounded at least 1. Scores killed, thousands displaced in continuing violence between Murle and Lou Nuer; Murle retaliatory attacks launched throughout Jan in Akobo, Uror and Duk Padiet counties. At least 70 reported killed in attack on Tonj East County, Warrap state, by armed youths from Mayendit County; govt accused Khartoum of arming militia. UNSRSG Hilde Johnson 19 Jan called for “redoubling of efforts” to curb violence, emphasised role of UN in deterring even greater violence, pledged additional UNMISS attention, called for additional troops. Govt 19 Jan said groups would be forcibly disarmed if necessary.

“Moving beyond violence in Jonglei”, IRIN, 23 Jan. 2012.

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1: Sudan

Govt 15 Jan said S Sudan oil confiscated to meet unpaid transit fees, 29 Jan said impounded oil released (see S Sudan). AU panel 24 Jan put forward new proposal including financial compensations to solve ongoing oil dispute; direct talks with S Sudan on sidelines of AU summit and talks at IGAD extraordinary session failed to secure progress. 20 JEM rebel leaders 11 Jan defected, announced intention to join Doha peace agreement. President Bashir 10 Jan appointed governors to 5 Darfur states, including 2 new states, in accordance with peace agreement. UNAMID 11 Jan accused Khartoum of restricting Darfur peacekeeper movement; 1 peacekeeper killed, 2 wounded 21 Jan in ambush, south Darfur. U.S. 6 Jan de-cision to lift restrictions on defence sales to S Sudan perceived as threat by Khartoum. Senior ruling Na-tional Congress Party official 22 Jan criticised security forces for 14 Jan closure of Al-Wan newspaper af-ter it published positive article on Khalil Ibrahim, former JEM leader. SPLM-N said strategic govt post taken in South Kordofan in 15 Jan clash; 28 Jan kidnapped 29 Chinese workers.

Comment by Zach Vertin, “African Union Must Pressure Sudan to Allow Food Aid into Kordofan and Blue Nile”, East African, 29 Jan. 2012.

“Sudan says taking some South Sudan oil but won’t close pipe”, Reuters, 15 Jan. 2012.

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2: Mali

Fears regional spillover from Libyan conflict could spark new Touareg rebellion as National Movement for Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) Touareg rebels reportedly backed by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and fighters who served in Libyan army staged series of attacks mid-late Jan on towns in north/north-east: govt responded by bombarding rebel position in Menaka 17 Jan; army said 45 rebels killed, 2 soldiers dead, 2,300 people fled into Mauritania. AQIM 12 Jan warned France, UK, Holland, Swe-den not to attempt rescue operation for hostages in Mali, said seeking peaceful solution. Former PMs Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Modibo Sidibe, and Mountaga Tall, announced candidacy in 29 April presidential poll.

“Ménaka aux prises avec la rébellion”, Journal du Mali, 17 Jan. 2012.

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3: Nigeria

At least 211 killed 20 Jan in Kano in worst ever Boko Haram bomb attack, targeting police, immigration offices and markets; police late Jan arrested 160 Chadians reportedly suspected of involvement. At least 7 died 22 Jan in Boko Haram bombing of 2 churches, Bauchi state; 11 suspected Boko Haram insurgents killed 28 Jan in checkpoint gun battle, Maiduguri. Boko Haram 2nd in command Umar Kabir, allegedly behind Madalla Christmas bombings, 18 Jan escaped police custody. Following late-Dec state of emergency declaration, President Jonathan 8 Jan claimed Boko Haram sympathizers in govt, security agencies. In response to Boko Haram 1 Jan demand Christian southerners leave North, Niger Delta Indi-genes Movement for Radical Change (NDIMRC) 10 Jan issued 21-day ultimatum calling on northerners to leave South. Govt 1 Jan announced complete withdrawal of fuel subsidies, prompting crippling strikes following 117% fuel price increase; govt 16 Jan reduced prices by 30%, deployed soldiers to Lagos and Kano to stop future pro-subsidy protest. Human rights groups 12 Jan petitioned ICC to investigate Presi-dent Jonathan’s role in alleged killings of over 35 protestors.

“Under pressure, Nigerian leader relents on gas price”, New York Times, 16 Jan. 2011.

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4: Senegal

Widespread protest over 28 Jan Constitutional Court ruling confirming legality of President Wade candidacy for 26 Feb election left 2 dead in Dakar, 2 in Podor, dozens injured countrywide. France 31 Jan warned Wade Senegalese army will not follow him if he tries to stay in power. Wade 11 Jan pardoned Malick Noël Seck, youth leader of opposition Socialist Party (PS) condemned 2 Jan for abusing Constitutional Council; Seck vowed to continue fight for release of Barthélémy Dias, other PS youth leader arrested after 23 Dec clashes with Wade supporters which left 1 dead. Situation in south re-mained tense: 1 killed during Casamance separatist MFDC attack on gendarmerie 3 Jan; 3 soldiers killed, 5 injured during operation in northern Casamance late Jan, landmine explosion wounded 7 near Diokadou 17 Jan.

“Faut-il s’attendre à une explosion?”, Slate Afrique, 18 Jan. 2012.

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5: Syria

UNSC in debate 31 Jan failed to agree on resolution calling on Assad to step down, talks continue. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 18 Jan stated Russia would reject sanctions, use UNSC veto to block any proposals for military intervention; Britain, France, U.S. 24 Jan condemned Russia’s sales of weapons to Syria. Gulf Arab states 24 Jan withdrew observers after govt rejected plan for President Assad to surrender power; Arab League 24 Jan requested meeting with UNSG Ban to discuss crisis, demand UNSC support. Arab League 28 Jan announced withdrawal of observers due to increased violence; FM Muallem 24 Jan accused Arab League of plotting to internationalise crisis. Despite continued violent crackdown on anti-govt protests, wide-scale demonstrations in support of Free Syrian Army continued throughout Jan. Damascus suicide bombs 6 Jan killed 25; explosions in Idlib province 21 Jan killed at least 14; at least 37 reported killed by security forces 27 Jan; 17 dead found 28 Jan on streets, allegedly killed by govt forces; at least 33 killed in attack by govt forces in Rankous, north of Damascus. Activists 30 Jan claimed over 100 dead, mostly in Homs.

Comment by Peter Harling, “Collectively failing Syrian society”, Foreign Policy, 24 Jan. 2012.

“Is Syria descending into civil war?”, Al Jazeera, 30 Jan. 2012.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Middle East Briefing N°31, Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria’s Dynamics, 24 Nov. 2011.

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6: Pakistan

Tension between army and govt increased 11 Jan when PM Yousaf Raza Gilani fired defense secretary retired general Naeem Khalid Lodhi, replaced with civilian Nargis Sethi; military leadership warned of “serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences” after PM Gilani publicly criticized them. PM Gilani 19 Jan appeared at Supreme Court accused of contempt for refusal to formally request Swiss authorities reopen corruption case against President Zardari, insisted Constitution grants presidential immunity. Judicial commission 9 Jan began investigating allegations former U.S. ambassador Hussain Haqqani sent memo requesting U.S. help to prevent military coup; Supreme Court 30 Jan lifted travel ban on Huqqani, easing civilian-military tensions. NATO report leaked 31 Jan said Pakistan aids, maintains close ties with Taliban in Afghanistan; govt said allegations “ridiculous”. Former President Musharraf delayed plans to return after Interior Minister Rehman Malik 17 Jan said he would be arrested under outstanding warrant for killing of Baloch rebel leader. 4 people including pro-govt militia leader Haji Akhonzada killed 30 Jan by suicide bomb, Peshawar. 14 soldiers killed in Turbat district 10 Jan in sus-pected Baloch separatist ambush. 29 killed, 37 wounded 10 Jan by bomb reportedly targeting pro-govt Zakhakhel tribal militia in Jamrud, Khyber region. 16 killed, over 20 injured 15 Jan in blast targeting Shi-ite procession, Punjab. Govt 31 Jan said over 60 killed in clash between soldiers and Taliban in Kurram tribal area, NW. Taliban 17 Jan killed Pakistani Voice of America reporter, threatened further attacks on journalists. U.S. President Obama 31 Jan confirmed U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan; Pakistan Foreign Office termed strikes “unlawful, counterproductive and hence intolerable”.

“Pakistan’s besieged government”, New York Times, 11 Jan. 2012.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°216, Islamic Parties in Pakistan, 12 Dec. 2011.

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7: Guatemala

Guatemalan judge 26 Jan ruled ex-military leader Efraín Ríos Montt to stand trial for genocide, crimes against humanity following 14 Jan expiration of his Congressional term granting immunity; prosecutors argued Gen. Montt had full knowledge, command of army operations resulting in the killing of over 1,700 Mayan villagers suspected of harbouring leftist guerrillas 1982-83.

“Guatemala ex-leader Rios Montt to face genocide charge”, BBC, 27 Jan. 2012.

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8: Myanmar/Burma

Significant progress in reform process as govt 12 Jan signed first ceasefire with main Karen rebel group, ending over 60 years of conflict; 13 Jan released 651 prisoners under new presidential pardon, some 300 political prisoners freed including most prominent political dissidents. Release followed 2 Jan amnesty for 900 mostly non-political prisoners. Amid continuing clashes in Kachin State, govt 18 Jan held inconclusive talks with Kachin Independence Army near Chinese border. Following prisoner release U.S. announced restoration of full diplomatic ties, exchange of ambassadors. EU 23 Jan agreed to suspend visa bans on leading politicians on basis of “remarkable” political reform; Australia 9 Jan announced easing of sanctions, removed some individuals from asset freeze list. Diplomatic visits included UK and French FMs, U.S. policy coordinator Derek Mitchell and U.S. envoy on human trafficking. Election Commission 30 Dec announced by-elections to be held 1 Apr; Aung San Suu Kyi 18 Jan submitted application to contest seat, 29 Jan started campaign tour.

“Burma signs ceasefire with Karen rebels in step towards ending isolation”, Guardian, 12 Jan. 2012.

For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°214, Myanmar: A New Peace Initiative, 30 Nov. 2011.

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0: South Sudan Ver detalle
1: Sudan Ver detalle
2: Mali Ver detalle
3: Nigeria Ver detalle
4: Senegal Ver detalle
5: Syria Ver detalle
6: Pakistan Ver detalle
7: Guatemala Ver detalle
8: Myanmar/Burma Ver detalle