CrisisWatch is a 12-page monthly bulletin designed to provide busy readers in the policy community, media, business and interested general public with a succinct regular update on the state of play in all the most significant situations of conflict or potential conflict around the world.
| 0: Guinea-Bissau Ver detalle |
| 1: Mali Ver detalle |
| 2: Syria Ver detalle |
| 3: Bahrain Ver detalle |
| 4: DR Congo Ver detalle |
| 5: Egypt Ver detalle |
| 6: Eritrea Ver detalle |
| 7: Ethiopia Ver detalle |
| 8: Macedonia Ver detalle |
| 9: North Korea Ver detalle |
| 10: Pakistan Ver detalle |
| 11: South Sudan Ver detalle |
| 12: Sudan Ver detalle |
| 13: Nepal Ver detalle |
Soldiers 12 April staged military coup, detained for over 2 weeks interim President Pereira and PM Gomes Júnior, widely expected to win presidential run-off originally scheduled 29 April; said acted to avert “Angolan aggression” by MISSANG forces stationed in Bissau. ECOWAS 27 April gave junta 72-hour ultimatum to accept 600-strong force, 12-month transition to civilian rule. CPLP 14 April demanded international intervention; Brazil said willing to lead stabilisation force. Following failure of negotiations with Chief of Staff António Indjai, ECOWAS 30 April imposed sanctions, threatened use of force to restore civilian rule. Portugal 15 April sent 2 navy ships, military plane to Cape Verde in preparation to evacuate nationals. Junta 16 April announced creation of transitional institutions to carry out 2-year roadmap to elections, proposed Parliament Speaker Serifo Nhamadjo as president; Nhamadjo rejected offer.
Following widespread condemnation of March military coup, military junta 7 April transferred power to civilian govt headed by Parliament Speaker Traoré in exchange for amnesty for mutineers; confusion over who is in charge as junta mid-April arrested several high-level political figures, continued to exercise control over state media. Soldiers loyal to deposed President Touré 30 April attempted counter-coup, foiled by junta soldiers; several dead. ECOWAS 27 April announced deployment of 3,000 troops, one-year transition instead of 40 days initially agreed with junta; Captain Sanogo 29 April said violation of agreement; fears of further unrest at Kati military garrison. National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) 5 April announced end of military operations, 6 April proclaimed liberation of Azawad state; AU rejected declaration of independence; Traoré 12 April threatened to launch “total war” on Tuareg rebels and Islamist militias in North, hundreds of northern youths gathered in Bamako 6 April to demand weapons to fight rebellion; UNSG Ban 16 April said urgent action needed to address “cascading crisis in Sahel”. Following fall of Timbuktu to Islamist militia Ansar Dine and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) early April, newly-formed National Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLNA) Arab militia 27 April said it took Timbuktu but 29 April exited city following threat of “bloodbath” by AQIM. Algerian army 29 April launched airstrike against AQIM splinter group Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA) responsible for 5 April abduction of Algerian diplomats in Gao, 20 dead.
Early-month saw upsurge in violence despite acceptance of Annan peace plan by Syrian regime, opposition. Security forces 9 April opened fire on Turkish refugee camp in Kilis, 2 killed. Following UN pressure, regime 12 April agreed to ceasefire with opposition; UNSG 24 April expressed alarm at surge in regime violence, 26 April said regime in contravention of peace plan; France 25 April said UNSC should consider use of force; U.S. 27 April said “patience exhausted”. Renewed anti-regime demonstrations took place mid-month despite continued regime targeting. UNSC 14 April unanimously approved deployment of 30 UN observers, 21 April voted to increase number to 300. Activists 23 April claimed Hama shelled by regime as punishment for UN visit, dozens reported killed, 26 April reported up to 70 killed in explosion in Hama. Regime 27 April said 10 killed in “suicide bombing” in Damascus. At least 9 killed in 30 April blasts in Idlib reportedly targeting security buildings. Opposition fighters 28 April reportedly launched sea raid in Latakia province. 2nd Friends of Syria Summit held 1 April in Istanbul, opposition group SNC said rebel fighters to receive salaries. EU 23 April agreed new round of sanctions against Syria.
Month saw daily anti-govt and pro-reform protests against 22 April Formula 1 race, in support of detained activist Abdulhadi al-Khawaja; govt 8 April rejected Danish govt demand to transfer al-Khawaja to Denmark; Court of Cassation 30 April ordered retrial in civil court of 21 pro-democracy activists, including al-Khawaja; leading activist Zainab al-Khawaja detained 24 April several times for allegedly insulting police while trying to access father. Explosion 9 April wounded 7 policemen; pro-govt Sunnis 10 April retaliated against Shiite store. Anti-riot police 13 April fired on funeral for activist killed in March. Activists claimed man found dead 21 April killed by police. Explosion 25 April wounded 4 policemen in Diraz. Amnesty International 17 April reported continuing govt violations, inadequate response to Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI).
April saw further deterioration in Security situation in Eastern DRC. Attempted mutiny by former CNDP leader Bosco Ntaganda, wanted by ICC, failed early April; President Kabila 11 April reportedly called for his arrest, domestic trial; clashes throughout month between army and rebels in Kivus displaced thousands. Doctors early April began strike protesting low pay, collapsing infrastructure. CENI 20 April announced provincial elections for Jan 2013, released report blaming international assistance for problems in presidential elections. SRSG Abou Moussa and AU Special Envoy on LRA Madeira 10-15 April visited DRC, discussed LRA threat with authorities, regional and international partners. PM late April appointed new govt, no opposition politicians included.
Month saw increasing constitutional and electoral turmoil ahead of 23-24 May presidential elections, mass demonstrations against Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Former spy chief and VP Suleiman 6 April announced presidential candidacy, sparking mass demonstration primarily by Islamists; Muslim Brotherhood (MB) warned of second revolution should former regime sympathisers return to power. Higher Presidential Election Commission (HPEC) 15 April disqualified 10 of 23 candidates, including the MB’s al-Shatir, Suleiman, Salafist Abu Ismail; MB said Freedom and Justice Party Chairman Mursi to run instead; tens of thousands of protesters from wide range of groups 20-21 April returned to Tahrir Square demanding handover of power to civilian rule. Salafist al-Nour Party 23 April suffered high-profile resignations over party’s perceived failure to endorse Abu Ismail’s presidential bid. Abu Ismail supporters organised sit-in opposite Ministry of Defence, violently attacked by unidentified assailants. Administrative court 10 April suspended Constituent Assembly following mass boycott by secular, minority groups; Advisory Council called on SCAF to issue complementary constitutional declaration setting criteria for equal representation. MB 18 April warned of “fierce war” to keep Islamists out of executive branch, said democracy in danger. Mohamed ElBaradei 28 April launched new Constitution Party. Protests 17 April disrupted start of trial of suspects in Feb Port Said football violence. Interpol 23 April refused Egyptian request to issue international wanted persons alerts for 15 foreigners linked to U.S.-based NGOs. Egypt state-owned gas company EGAS 23 April announced cancellation of gas deal with Israel over unpaid fees.
President Afewerki 28 April appeared on TV dispelling rumours of death, amid reports of fatal illness; govt claimed rumours originate with CIA; rumours raised tensions and prospect of internal instability. Tensions with Ethiopia continued: govt 18 April denied abducting over 100 Ethiopian miners (see Ethiopia). Small Arms Survey report released 17 April said Eritrea supplying S. Sudan rebels with weapons.
PM Meles 17 April accused Eritrea of abducting over 100 Ethiopian gold miners from NW Tigray region; Eritrean govt denied accusations. Terrorism trial of Abdirahman Hassan, UN security officer stationed in Ogaden region and arrested July 2011 for alleged links to rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), began 9 April. PM Meles 17 April announced imminent withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia.
Tensions rose dangerously as 5 ethnic Slavs found murdered 12 April outside Skopje; President Ivanov 15 April urged “restraint by all”; Kosovo PM Thaçi 18 April stressed need to avoid regional destabilisation; hundreds of nationalist ethnic Slav youths 16 April clashed with police in Skopje demonstration outside Parliament against murders.
Amid signs of increasing belligerence, DPRK 13 April attempted but failed to launch Unha-3 rocket to coincide with 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung; UNSC condemned attempt, warned of further action if nuclear test carried out; U.S. cancelled planned food aid and 20 April revealed suspicions China sold missile launcher technology to DPRK; DPRK 17 April announced it is no longer bound by U.S. “leap day” agreement. Kim Jong-un 15 April gave first public speech, reaffirmed military priorities; KPA Supreme Command 23 April announced intentions to initiate “special actions” to destroy ROK, president, mass media firms. KWP 21 April held talks with Chinese Communist Party international department chief, President Hu. China State Councillor Dai Bingguo praised Kim Jong-un, vowed to deepen ties with DPRK. Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun 18 April reported that China had ceased deportations of DPRK defectors.
Supreme Court 26 April convicted PM Gilani of contempt of court, PM refused to step down, govt said will file appeal. Lahore station bomb blast 24 April killed 4; 8 Hazara Shias killed 15 April in sectarian attacks, Quetta. Following spate of politically and ethnically motivated targeted killings in Karachi, that claimed over 25 lives early April, Interior Minister Rehman Malik 23 April alleged Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) and Awami National Party (ANP) activists involved in corruption, extortion. Parliament early April unanimously approved non-binding resolution to end drone strikes, ban U.S. intelligence operations and unilateral U.S. military operations; first U.S. drone in a month killed 4 al-Qaeda linked fighters in N Waziristan 29 April, attack condemned by govt. High-level talks between U.S. and Pakistan 27 April failed to repair ties, reach agreement on re-opening NATO supply routes. Govt 25 April tested ballistic missile following 19 April long-range missile launch by India.
President Kiir 24 April said Sudan had “declared war” following continued airstrikes; AU 24 April gave Sudan and S Sudan 3 months to reach deal, end fighting, or face “appropriate measures” following continued deterioration in relations throughout April (see Sudan). S Sudan 4 April claimed forces shot down Sudanese jet over Unity State. Govt 25 April released 14 Sudanese soldiers in move hoped to ease tensions, soldier alleged beatings, mistreatment; govt same day accused Khartoum of bombing Unity state. Govt 28 April said attack by Khartoum-backed rebels in Upper Nile state repulsed, 21 killed; 29 April said committed to an "immediate cessation of all hostilities" with Sudan, would withdraw all police from Abyei, in letter to UN.
Tensions with S Sudan continued: in blow to economy, SPLA 10 April took over Helgig oil fields, 12 April shut down production, 20 April ordered pull-out; late April denied damaging Helgig oil infrastructure. Govt agencies ordered to cut petrol use, civil servants to donate 2 days pay to support army. Khartoum 30 April declared state of emergency in border regions. AU 24 April gave Sudan, S Sudan 3 months to reach deal, end fighting, or face “appropriate measures”; UNSC called for halt to airstrikes. Khartoum 2 April reopened negotiations with Juba in Addis Ababa, 3 April failed to sign security deal despite reaching understandings on cessation of hostilities and campaigns. Military operations in South Kordofan and Blue Nile escalated throughout month, prompting Khartoum to again accuse Juba of providing support to rebels; Small Arms Survey report published 17 April suggested close ties between Juba and SPLM-N. 4 UN peacekeepers injured in ambush 21 April, Darfur. SAF 22 April reported over 50 SPLM-N killed, 17 arrested in Blue Nile, refuted SPLM-N claims 79 SAF soldiers killed.
Special Committee for Supervision Integration and Rehabilitation of Maoist combatants 11 April handed command of cantonments holding 9,700 former Maoist combatants over to Nepalese Army; 14 April endorsed seven-point agreement outlining formation of integration selection committees, training period, bridge course and directorates. Second phase of combatant regrouping concluded 20 April: over 6,500 retired voluntarily, 3,100 to join Nepalese Army. Leaders from major parties continued negotiations on constitutional issues including forms of governance and state restructuring, increasing hopes for broad political agreement. Rift within Maoist party continued: anti-establishment faction led by Mohan Baidya ‘Kiran’ formed parallel structures, 24 April re-established People’s Volunteer’s Bureau, meant to replicate Young Communist League and accommodate former fighters. Both federalists and anti-federalists organised several rallies and strikes across country to pressure major parties during negotiations. 4 killed, 18 wounded 30 April in bomb blast in Janakpur. Bombs planted by disillusioned Maoist cadres found, defused 4 April in buses, bus parks around Kathmandu.