CrisisWatch is a 12-page monthly bulletin designed to provide busy readers in the policy community, media, business and interested general public with a succinct regular update on the state of play in all the most significant situations of conflict or potential conflict around the world.
0: South Sudan Ver detalle |
1: Sudan Ver detalle |
2: Mali Ver detalle |
3: Nigeria Ver detalle |
4: Senegal Ver detalle |
5: Syria Ver detalle |
6: Pakistan Ver detalle |
7: Guatemala Ver detalle |
8: Myanmar/Burma Ver detalle |
UNSC in debate 31 Jan failed to agree on resolution calling on Assad to step down, talks continue. Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 18 Jan stated Russia would reject sanctions, use UNSC veto to block any proposals for military intervention; Britain, France, U.S. 24 Jan condemned Russia’s sales of weapons to Syria. Gulf Arab states 24 Jan withdrew observers after govt rejected plan for President Assad to surrender power; Arab League 24 Jan requested meeting with UNSG Ban to discuss crisis, demand UNSC support. Arab League 28 Jan announced withdrawal of observers due to increased violence; FM Muallem 24 Jan accused Arab League of plotting to internationalise crisis. Despite continued violent crackdown on anti-govt protests, wide-scale demonstrations in support of Free Syrian Army continued throughout Jan. Damascus suicide bombs 6 Jan killed 25; explosions in Idlib province 21 Jan killed at least 14; at least 37 reported killed by security forces 27 Jan; 17 dead found 28 Jan on streets, allegedly killed by govt forces; at least 33 killed in attack by govt forces in Rankous, north of Damascus. Activists 30 Jan claimed over 100 dead, mostly in Homs.
Comment by Peter Harling, “Collectively failing Syrian society”, Foreign Policy, 24 Jan. 2012.
“Is Syria descending into civil war?”, Al Jazeera, 30 Jan. 2012.
Tension between army and govt increased 11 Jan when PM Yousaf Raza Gilani fired defense secretary retired general Naeem Khalid Lodhi, replaced with civilian Nargis Sethi; military leadership warned of “serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences” after PM Gilani publicly criticized them. PM Gilani 19 Jan appeared at Supreme Court accused of contempt for refusal to formally request Swiss authorities reopen corruption case against President Zardari, insisted Constitution grants presidential immunity. Judicial commission 9 Jan began investigating allegations former U.S. ambassador Hussain Haqqani sent memo requesting U.S. help to prevent military coup; Supreme Court 30 Jan lifted travel ban on Huqqani, easing civilian-military tensions. NATO report leaked 31 Jan said Pakistan aids, maintains close ties with Taliban in Afghanistan; govt said allegations “ridiculous”. Former President Musharraf delayed plans to return after Interior Minister Rehman Malik 17 Jan said he would be arrested under outstanding warrant for killing of Baloch rebel leader. 4 people including pro-govt militia leader Haji Akhonzada killed 30 Jan by suicide bomb, Peshawar. 14 soldiers killed in Turbat district 10 Jan in sus-pected Baloch separatist ambush. 29 killed, 37 wounded 10 Jan by bomb reportedly targeting pro-govt Zakhakhel tribal militia in Jamrud, Khyber region. 16 killed, over 20 injured 15 Jan in blast targeting Shi-ite procession, Punjab. Govt 31 Jan said over 60 killed in clash between soldiers and Taliban in Kurram tribal area, NW. Taliban 17 Jan killed Pakistani Voice of America reporter, threatened further attacks on journalists. U.S. President Obama 31 Jan confirmed U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan; Pakistan Foreign Office termed strikes “unlawful, counterproductive and hence intolerable”.
“Pakistan’s besieged government”, New York Times, 11 Jan. 2012.
For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°216, Islamic Parties in Pakistan, 12 Dec. 2011.
Guatemalan judge 26 Jan ruled ex-military leader Efraín Ríos Montt to stand trial for genocide, crimes against humanity following 14 Jan expiration of his Congressional term granting immunity; prosecutors argued Gen. Montt had full knowledge, command of army operations resulting in the killing of over 1,700 Mayan villagers suspected of harbouring leftist guerrillas 1982-83.
“Guatemala ex-leader Rios Montt to face genocide charge”, BBC, 27 Jan. 2012.
Significant progress in reform process as govt 12 Jan signed first ceasefire with main Karen rebel group, ending over 60 years of conflict; 13 Jan released 651 prisoners under new presidential pardon, some 300 political prisoners freed including most prominent political dissidents. Release followed 2 Jan amnesty for 900 mostly non-political prisoners. Amid continuing clashes in Kachin State, govt 18 Jan held inconclusive talks with Kachin Independence Army near Chinese border. Following prisoner release U.S. announced restoration of full diplomatic ties, exchange of ambassadors. EU 23 Jan agreed to suspend visa bans on leading politicians on basis of “remarkable” political reform; Australia 9 Jan announced easing of sanctions, removed some individuals from asset freeze list. Diplomatic visits included UK and French FMs, U.S. policy coordinator Derek Mitchell and U.S. envoy on human trafficking. Election Commission 30 Dec announced by-elections to be held 1 Apr; Aung San Suu Kyi 18 Jan submitted application to contest seat, 29 Jan started campaign tour.
“Burma signs ceasefire with Karen rebels in step towards ending isolation”, Guardian, 12 Jan. 2012.
For latest report, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°214, Myanmar: A New Peace Initiative, 30 Nov. 2011.