Crisiswatch 100

0: Burundi

Setback for forthcoming Bonn talks on Afghanistan as Pakistan threatened to boycott after NATO/ISAF airstrikes (see Pakistan); attacks marked further deterioration in Afghan and U.S relations with Pakistan. Over 2,000 political elite attended loya jirga 16-20 Nov to discuss support for proposed U.S.-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership, negotiations with Taliban; meeting derided by Northern Alliance-dominated opposition and Taliban. Delegates 20 Nov endorsed negotiation of long-term security pact with U.S.; hundreds protested in streets 20 Nov against pact. Suspected suicide bomber shot dead, 2 arrested 14 Nov near site of loya jirga, hours after Taliban claimed to have published secret security plan for meeting, threatened to target participants. Deputy commander of NATO Training Mission resigned 4 Nov following comment that Afghan leaders “isolated from reality”. President Karzai 12 Nov met with Pakistani counterpart as part of ongoing efforts to repair relations. Suicide bomber targeting local tribal elder killed 7, wounded 15 in Baghlan province 6 Nov; roadside bomb 6 Nov killed district police chief and 2 bodyguards in Helmand province. At least 11 killed 7 Nov by roadside bomb in Badghis, NW. 12 personnel killed, 9 injured in Taliban attack on security firm in Farah province. 7 civilians including 6 children killed 23 Nov in NATO airstrike, and at least 10 Taliban militants reportedly killed 28 Nov in joint Afghan-NATO military operation in Kandahar. 3 policemen killed 30 Nov by roadside bomb in Baghlan; 7 Pakistani workers kidnapped 30 Nov near Kabul.

• “Pakistan to boycott Afghan Bonn talks after NATO raid”, BBC, 29 Nov. 2011.

1: DR Congo

Fears violence will escalate following 28-30 presidential elections marred by disorganisation, allegations of fraud and violence, and subsequent call by 4 opposition candidates for results to be invalidated. SADC, AU observers 30 Nov said polls success, no basis for annulment. Political rallies banned 26 Nov following violence in Kinshasa; police 28 Nov fired tear gas on crowd gathered at Kinshasa polling station. 7 killed 28 Nov in 2 separate clashes in Lubumbashi and West Kasai, SE. Opposition Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) leader Tshisekedi 7 Nov proclaimed himself president, told followers to jail-break political prisoners, provoking national, international condemnation. Opposition Movement for the Liberation of the Congo (MLC) candidate Marcus Gangale shot dead 22 Nov in Kinshasa. UNSC 29 Nov added Mai Mai Shka leader and parliamentary candidate Ntabo Sheka to UN sanctions list. UN Joint Human Rights Office report 9 Nov documented 188 rights violations Nov 2010 - Sept 2011, most involving police or National Intelligence Services.

• “DR Congo’s Vital Kamerhe leads calls to annul vote”, BBC, 29 Nov. 2011.

2: Conflict Risk Alert

DR Congo

3: Kosovo

Increasing fears over tensions and outbreaks of violence in north Kosovo, as Serbs continue to barricade customs gates with Serbia against Kosovo customs officials. 1 Serb shot dead, 2 wounded including 1 Kosovo Police officer, in clash between ethnic Serbs and Albanians in Brdjani, N Mitrovica 9 Nov. KFOR troops 9 Nov used tear gas against 2 trucks trying to drive into checkpoint near Jarinje, 23 Nov clashed with hundreds of Serbs after attempt to dismantle Serb roadblock in Rudare; 21 KFOR soldiers injured before withdrawing, along with unknown number of Serbs. Dozens of Serbs injured 28 Nov as Serbs tried to prevent KFOR dismantling barricade at Jagnjenica; 25 KFOR troops also injured, including 2 by small-arms fire. KFOR commander Gen Erhard Drews 26 Nov warned over possible escalation of violence. Serbian President Tadic 29 Nov called on Serbs to leave barricades. Serbian interior minister Ivica Dacic 24 Nov said Serbia should be ready for war over north, drawing condemnation from EU, Pristina. Belgrade 18 Nov adopted decree putting in force civil registry agreement agreed in Pristina-Belgrade dialogue. EU-facilitated talks aimed at normalising relations between Belgrade and Pristina resumed at 7th round 21-22 Nov after 2-month hiatus. Sides agreed to accept each other’s higher education qualifications and agreed to return to issue of Kosovo’s participation in regional fora at next meeting. No deal on EU-proposed compromise solution for control of Kosovo-Serbia border. 8th round opened 30 Nov.

• “Sweden urges EU to take control of north Kosovo problem”, EU Observer, 28 Nov. 2011.

4: Pakistan

Pakistan-U.S. relations severely damaged by NATO/ISAF attack on 2 Pakistan military border outposts 26 Nov that killed 24 soldiers; govt condemned attack, protested use of Afghan base, shut down key NATO supply routes, asked NATO to vacate airbase in Balochistan, 29 Nov decided to boycott 5 Dec Bonn conference. Attack prompted protests 28 Nov; director general of military operations 30 Nov said attack deliberate, blatant act of aggression. Ambassador to U.S. Haqqani 22 Nov resigned after alleged involvement in memo accusing Pakistani military of plotting coup in May; denies involvement. N Waziristan-based militant commander Hafiz Gul Bahdur 12 Nov threatened to abandon 2007 unofficial peace deal with military, citing drone strikes and Pakistani army shelling, prompting fears of escalated violence in region. Drone strike on suspected militant base in Waziristan near Afghan border 16 Nov reportedly killed at least 16; 7 killed 17 Nov in drone strike in Shawal valley, N Waziristan. Senior Pakistani Taliban commander 21 Nov said group declared ceasefire, halted attacks around country in support of govt peace talks; refuted by Taliban spokesman 23 Nov. At least 14 soldiers killed, 10 injured 21 Nov in ambush by separatist rebels in Balochistan. Attack on police station 23 Nov killed 2, wounded 7 in Darbaan Kalan near sectarian flashpoint Dera Ismail Kahn. Over 19 militants reportedly killed 23 Nov in Central Kurram Agency in govt helicopter attack on hideouts; over 90 reportedly killed in preceding days. Antiterrorism court 5 Nov indicted 5 militants, 2 police in 2007 assassination of PM Bhutto. PM Gilani 11 Nov met with Afghanistan President Karzai, agreed to cooperate further on regional security and stability, but peace prospects undermined by NATO/ISAF attack.

• “U.S.-Pakistan ties unravel amid new crisis”, Politco, 30 Nov. 2011.

5: South Sudan

North-South relations further deteriorated when Sudanese Armed Forces reportedly launched cross-border airstrikes on Maban County, Upper Nile State, and 10 Nov bombed Yida refugee camp, Unity state, killing 12; Khartoum denied. Negotiations with Sudan 25-30 Nov made no progress on oil and outstanding issues (See Sudan). Clashes between South Sudan Liberation Army (SSLA) rebels and govt forces continued. SSLA 24 Nov claimed govt soldiers and officer captured, urged civilians and aid workers to evacuate Mayom, Unity State, ahead of planned attack. Militia with suspected ties to rebel George Athor 16 Nov attacked 3 villages in Jonglei killing 4; Athor 20 Nov said further violence likely after talks with President Kiir failed. 2 journalists released 19 Nov after 2 week illegal detention by security forces allegedly for publishing article criticising marriage of President Kiir’s daughter to Ethiopian national.

• “Border battles threaten the new Sudans”, BBC, 15 Nov. 2011.

6: Sudan

Increased tension with S Sudan after SAF airstrikes in Upper Nile State and on Yida refugee camp, Unity State (see South Sudan); govt denies. Defence Minister Hussein 13 Nov claimed SAF seized heavy armoury belonging to S Sudan during clashes with SPLM-N in Blue Nile, S Kordofan; accused S Sudan of attempting to destabilise country. Govt 5 Nov lodged complaint with UNSC detailing alleged S Sudan support for rebels in S Kordofan, Blue Nile. Rebel JEM 23 Nov denied reports that S Sudan aiding leader Khalil Ibrahim. Talks between Khartoum and Juba reconvened 25 Nov; failed to reach agreement on critical issues of oil and financial arrangements. Petroleum Minister Ali Ahmed Osman 28 Nov announced S Sudan oil exports blocked until transit fee agreed; Foreign Ministry 29 Nov denied decision, following criticism by China. Clashes between SAF and rebels continued in S Kordofan, Blue Nile; SAF 3 Nov captured rebel stronghold Kurmuk, 22 Nov announced capture of Deim Mansour, Blue Nile. Amnesty International 12 Nov accused govt of arresting over 100 opposition activists, torturing many. Attack on Darfur peacekeepers near Nyala 8 Nov killed 1, wounded 2. Khartoum expelled Kenyan ambassador 29 Nov amid diplomatic row (see Kenya). Request to join EAC rejected 30 Nov due to objections over lack of democracy, women’s rights.

• “Springtime in Sudan”, Foreign Policy, 22 Nov. 2011.

7: Syria

Fears of escalation in violence as month saw failed Arab League attempt to end bloodshed, accelerated militarisation of protest movement, internationalisation of conflict. UN reported some 3,500 killed in crackdown on ongoing anti-regime protests. Authorities blamed violence on foreign-backed armed groups, said killed some 1,100 soldiers and police. Opposition Syrian National Council (SNC) 7 Nov called for international intervention in security forces siege of central city Homs, called it “humanitarian disaster area”. Arab League 12 Nov voted to suspend Syria after it failed to implement 2 Nov deal to end bloodshed and withdraw forces from cities; Russian FM Lavrov called suspension ploy by West to destabilise Syria. Pro-Assad crowds 12 Nov attacked Saudi Arabian embassy, French and Turkish consulates. President Assad 20 Nov said parliamentary elections would be held early-2012 ahead of new constitution including provisions for presidential elections; govt said over 2,000 political prisoners released in month. UNGA 22 Nov adopted non-binding resolution condemning Syria’s actions. French FM Juppe 23 Nov said France seeking international recognition for SNC at UN. UNHRC published report 28 Nov accused regime of systematic murder, torture and rape. Escalating attacks by Free Syrian Army, made up of army defectors, including killing of 8 soldiers in 26 Nov ambush in Idlib. Arab League 27 Nov agreed economic sanctions against regime; Turkey 30 Nov imposed financial sanctions.

• "Syria troops have killed more than 250 children, UN report finds”, Guardian, 28 Nov. 2011.

8: Conflict Risk Alert

Syria

9: Burma/Myanmar

Major political development marked by return of Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) to political process, decision by ASSK and other NLD leaders to contest seats in upcoming by-elections; 18 Nov confirmation that Myanmar to chair ASEAN in 2014 also reflection of positive changes in recent months, amid hopes it will drive further reform. Flurry of diplomatic visits to Myanmar, including U.S. Myanmar envoy Derek Mitchell in 3rd visit 2-4 Nov, UN Special Envoy Vijay Nambiar, Norwegian and UK development ministers, German Deputy FM. U.S. Sec State Clinton commenced visit to Myanmar 30 Nov, first such visit for over 50 years; UNSG Ban announced intention to visit as soon as possible. Chinese VP Xi Jinping 28 Nov called for increased military ties. President Thein Sein 4 Nov signed amendments to political party registration law, addressing concerns of opposition NLD. NLD 18 Nov announced intention to register as legal political party, submitted application 25 Nov. Parliament 24 Nov passed bill allowing peaceful protests. Situation surrounding ethnic conflict remains tense, however some progress in president’s peace initiative. Karen armed group Kloh Htoo Baw 3 Nov announced it had signed ceasefire with govt. Series of meetings in Thailand between presidential envoy and several armed groups; Shan State Army-South 19 Nov said agreement on ceasefire reached, said envoy conveyed commitment to holding national conference on political solutions to ethnic divisions. Some other armed groups agreed to sign ceasefires in near future. Fighting continued in Kachin areas between KIO, govt forces. KIO delegation met with presidential envoy, held further talks in China 29 Nov.

• “Hillary Clinton to visit Burma”. Guardian, 29 Nov. 2011.

10: Morocco

Moderate Islamist Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won 107 of 395 seats in 25 Nov parliamentary election, first under new constitution; PJD will head coalition govt for first time. King Mohamed VI named PJD head Abdelilah Benkirane new PM. Roughly 15,000 demonstrated 20 Nov in major cities calling for boycott of elections. Growing budget deficit reached 25bn dirhams mid-month. Ambassador to Syria recalled 16 Nov after embassy in Damascus attacked by pro-Assad crowds.

• “Moderate Islamist party to lead coalition government in Morocco”, New York Times, 27 Nov. 2011.

11: Nepal

Leaders of 4 main parties 1 Nov agreed to integrate one third of former Maoist rebels into army, give money to others, removing major stumbling block to constitution writing. Constituent Assembly term extended 29 Nov; state restructuring commission formed, though decisions expected to be politically motivated. Supreme Court 23 Nov opposed Cabinet recommendation for pardon for Maoist MP Bal Krishna Dhungel. 22 Nov bomb attack on Christian NGO United Mission to Nepal and 28 Nov bomb attempt on Kathmandu church by Hindu fundamentalist group sparked fears for security of religious minorities.

• “Most of Nepal’s ex-rebel fighters want to join national army they once fought in brutal war”, AP, 24 Nov. 2011.

12: Tunisia

Country saw formation of new govt following historic 23 Oct election. Final poll results announced 14 Nov; moderate Islamist An-Nahda party won 41% of vote, 89 out of 217 Constituent Assembly (CA) seats; left-leaning Congress for the Republic (CPR) led by prominent rights activist Moncef Marzouki 29 seats; populist Popular Petition party led by former Islamist militant 26 seats; liberal socialist Ettakatol 20 seats. New CA inaugurated 22 Nov; 3 main parties formalised power-sharing agreement same day: Hamadi Jebali of An-Nahda to be PM, CPR and Ettakatol holding largely ceremonial Presidency and Speaker of Parliament posts. Military court 30 Nov found ousted president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and several of his senior officials guilty in absentia of torture. Continued concerns over post-election unrest in South and West; thousands-strong peaceful demonstration in Kasserine turned violent 23 Nov, riots in Gafsa region 24 Nov as protestors attacked govt building, authorities declared curfew. Hundreds of demonstrators clashed with students at Manouba University 28-29 Nov over wearing of veil by female students. Interim President Fouad Mebazza 29 Nov signed decree extending state of emergency. Authorities 1 Nov issued international arrest warrant for Suha Arafat, widow of late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, as part of corruption probe into Tunisia’s former first family. Govt 8 Nov approved extradition of former Libya PM Baghdadi al-Mahmudi.

• “Tunisia’s New Beginning”, Guardian, 22 Nov. 2011.