SOURCE: Foreign and Commonwealth Office A 4 degree world This interactive map shows some of the possible impacts of a global temperature rise of 4 degrees Celsius. It underlines why the UK Government and other countries believe we must keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, because beyond that the impacts will be increasingly disruptive to our global prosperity and security. The impacts shown on the map are only a selection of those that may occur and are focused primarily on the effect of climate change on human activity. Where numbers of people are quoted, the underlying assumption is that population changes will follow the population projections used by the IPCC to develop the A1B emission scenario. This means that the impacts are consistent with each other. However, the evidence for the impacts shown comes from a number of different research studies. In some cases the impacts have been driven by different model projections, although all the climate data used is consistent with a 4 ºC (7 ºF) global average-temperature rise. Adaptation options to the impacts shown on the map may or may not always be feasible. For this reason no assumptions are made about the adaptive capacity of the countries and regions affected. Instead, the values described as 'up to' indicate the worst case in a range of outcomes that include model uncertainty and behavioural responses.
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High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
High forest-fire danger projected to affect every populated continent. Regions moving into the high-danger category include: large areas of the United States; Mexico; South America, east of the Andes; southern and east Africa; the Sahel; eastern and southern Australia and southern Europe.
Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.
Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.
Soybean yield could decrease in all regions of production, including North and South America, southern and eastern Asia.
Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.
Decrease in rice yield of up to 30% in China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes.
Soybean yield could decrease in all regions of production, including North and South America, southern and eastern Asia.
Decrease in rice yield of up to 30% in China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Soybean yield could decrease in all regions of production, including North and South America, southern and eastern Asia.
Water resources affected by up to 70% reduction in run-off around the Mediterranean, southern Africa and large areas of South America.
Water resources affected by up to 70% reduction in run-off around the Mediterranean, southern Africa and large areas of South America.
Water resources affected by up to 70% reduction in run-off around the Mediterranean, southern Africa and large areas of South America.
Half of all Himalayan glaciers significantly reduced by 2050, even at a global average temperature below 4 ºC.
The Indus river basin obtains 70% of its summer flow from glacial melt.
In China, 23% of the population lives in the western regions where glacial melt provides the principal dry season water source.
Complete disappearance of glaciers from many regions in South America.
In Peru’s Cordillera Blanca summer run-off from glaciers reduced by up to 69% as the glacial area falls by 75%.
Sea-level rise combined with storm surges could pose a serious threat to people and assets in the Netherlands and south-eastern parts of the UK.
Sea levels could rise as much as 80 cm by the end of the century. Longer term, 4 º C (7 º F) would result in a much higher rise in sea level.
Sea level increases are likely to be even greater at low latitudes, disproportionately affecting tropical islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh.
For the population at 2075, a mean sea-level rise of 53 cm means that up to an additional 150 million people per year would be flooded due to extreme sea levels. Three-quarters of these people live in Asia. Up to 56 million people would be flooded along the Indian Ocean coast, 25 million along the east Asian coast and 33 million people would be flooded along the South-East Asian coast.
Other vulnerable regions include Africa, Caribbean islands, Indian Ocean islands and Pacific small islands.
Sea levels could rise as much as 80 cm by the end of the century. Longer term, 4 º C (7 º F) would result in a much higher rise in sea level.
Sea level increases are likely to be even greater at low latitudes, disproportionately affecting tropical islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh.
For the population at 2075, a mean sea-level rise of 53 cm means that up to an additional 150 million people per year would be flooded due to extreme sea levels. Three-quarters of these people live in Asia. Up to 56 million people would be flooded along the Indian Ocean coast, 25 million along the east Asian coast and 33 million people would be flooded along the South-East Asian coast.
Other vulnerable regions include Africa, Caribbean islands, Indian Ocean islands and Pacific small islands.
Sea levels could rise as much as 80 cm by the end of the century. Longer term, 4 º C (7 º F) would result in a much higher rise in sea level.
Sea level increases are likely to be even greater at low latitudes, disproportionately affecting tropical islands and low-lying regions such as Bangladesh.
For the population at 2075, a mean sea-level rise of 53 cm means that up to an additional 150 million people per year would be flooded due to extreme sea levels. Three-quarters of these people live in Asia. Up to 56 million people would be flooded along the Indian Ocean coast, 25 million along the east Asian coast and 33 million people would be flooded along the South-East Asian coast.
Other vulnerable regions include Africa, Caribbean islands, Indian Ocean islands and Pacific small islands.
It is not known how stable the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is, or whether a 4 ºC (7 ºF) global temperature rise will send it into irreversible decline. If this ice sheet did melt it would contribute a further 3.3 metres to long-term sea-level rise globally.
Greenland Ice Sheet has a 60% likelihood of irreversible decline. This would result in a very long-term sea-level rise of up to 7 metres globally.
Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.
Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.
Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.
Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.
Marine ecosystems could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification which would have a significant impact on fisheries. This could cause substantial loss in revenue and jobs. The loss of coral reef habitats due to acidification may seriously affect many commercial fish species and could prove disastrous for coastal communities relying on subsistence fishing of reef species.
1 in 10-year drought events today occur twice as frequently across southern Africa, South-East Asia and the Mediterranean basin.
1 in 10-year drought events today occur twice as frequently across southern Africa, South-East Asia and the Mediterranean basin.
1 in 10-year drought events today occur twice as frequently across southern Africa, South-East Asia and the Mediterranean basin.
Almost complete disappearance of near-surface permafrost from Northern Siberia. Reduction of permafrost in Canada and Alaska. Infrastructure built on the permafrost foundation at risk.
Almost complete disappearance of near-surface permafrost from Northern Siberia. Reduction of permafrost in Canada and Alaska. Infrastructure built on the permafrost foundation at risk.
Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.
Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.
Tropical cyclones could be more intense and destructive. Global population increases, particularly in coastal areas, and sea-level rise mean greater cyclone and hurricane related losses, disruptions to infrastructure and loss of life as a result of storm surges. For major cyclone disasters flooding from storm surges has been the primary cause of death.
Hottest days of the year could be as much as 6 ºC (11 ºF) warmer over highly populated areas of eastern China.
Hottest days of the year could become as much as 10-12 ºC (18-22 ºF) warmer over the eastern North America, affecting Toronto, Chicago, Ottawa, New York and Washington DC.
Hottest days of the year across Europe could be as much as 8 ºC (14 ºF) warmer.